江苏省工业污染排放特征及其成因分析

采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型模拟江苏省1991年以来经济增长和工业污染之间的动态演进关系,应用分解分析法对2001～2004年间部分污染物排放变化的成因进行了定量分析.结果表明,江苏省工业污染排放量和人均GDP之间的关系类型有U型、倒U型、U型+倒U型以及N型4种,目前大部分污染物呈增长态势.将污染物排放变化的成因分为规模效应、结构效应和广义技术效应3类,结果显示,规模效应促进污染物排放量增加,结构效应和广义技术效应的作用方向不确定,但广义技术效应对污染物控制有决定性作用,强力的环境政策和管理措施能够有效地控制污染物排放.

Character of industrial pollution discharge in Jiangsu Province and its cause analysis

The dynamic evolution relationship between the economic increase and the industrial pollution in Jiangsu Province since 1991 was simulated adopting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model; the quantitative analysis was carried out on the cause of discharge change of partial pollutants in 2001 to 2004 applying decomposition analysis (DA) method. There were four kinds of relationship model between the discharge amount of industrial pollution and GDP per capita in Jiangsu Province: U model, inverted U model, U + inverted U model, and N model; at present, great part of pollutants tended to increase, especially waste gas, solid waste and petrochemical wastewater; the causes of pollution change were decomposed into three kinds of scale effect, structure effect and generalized technical effect (GTE); the scale effect promoted the increase of pollutant discharge; the functional directions of structure effect and GTE were undetermined; but GTE had crucial function on pollution control; intensive environmental policy and management could control the pollution discharge effectively.