Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change |
| |
Authors: | Tony Prato Qiu Zeyuan Gregory Pederson Dan Fagre Lindsey E Bengtson Jimmy R Williams |
| |
Institution: | (1) Center for Applied Research and Environmental Systems, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA;(2) New Jersey Institute of Technology, Chemistry and Environmental Science, Newark, NJ, USA;(3) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT, USA;(4) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA;(5) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, USA;(6) Blackland Research and Extension Center, Temple, TX, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated
for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an
historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems
(APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and
A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include:
(1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2)
simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant
APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in
the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated
using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic
efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields
are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting
probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions
for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop
enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and
simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future
climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of
the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in
the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to
offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|