海洋石油轮班作业风险定量分析方法研究

长期以来，海洋石油领域风险研究主要集中在对设施的潜在失效概率和后果研究方面，而对于人员可靠性及风险管理方面的研究较弱。然而，据统计资料显示，海上设施在其生命周期内的设计、建造和生产作业等各个阶段中发生的事故大多与人为错误和组织错误（HOE）有关联。在海洋工程领域，开展人员可靠性分析（HRA）的研究工作具有重要意义。根据海上作业的特殊性及轮班制度的特点，推导出轮班风险的定量分析公式，据此计算出每个工作日轮班风险的相对大小，然后结合我国海上作业的实际情况，对影响轮班风险的可变因素进行了敏感性分析，为风险控制与管理提供参考。

research on quantitative risk analysis of offshore shift system

For a long period, the risk research of offshore oil and gas field is focused mainly on the potential failure probability and consequences research of facilities, but for personnel reliability and risk management research are weak. However, according to statistics, most accidents which have occurred in various stages of the offshore facilities in their whole life cycle, including design, construction and production, are associated with human error and organizational error (HOE). In the offshore engineering field, carrying out research for personnel reliability analysis (HRA) work is important. According to the special nature of offshore operations and the characteristics of shift system, a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) formula for shift risk was derived. Based on the formula, the relative risk of shift for each working day was calculated, and then, according to the actual situation of offshore operation in China, a sensitivity analysis was given for two important factors which can affect shift risk, while the result could be the reference to risk control and management.