我国工农业水资源使用强度变动的区域因素分解与差异分析

不断降低水资源使用强度是建设节水型社会的一个核心任务。运用对数平均D氏指数方法(LMDI)建立因素分解模型,定量分析2003-2009年间我国工农业水资源使用强度变动的区域因素贡献并进行比较。结果表明,技术进步是影响全国工农业水资源使用强度下降的最主要因素,产业结构调整和优化对全国工农业水资源使用强度下降也起着非常重要的作用,而区域经济规模变化所起作用较弱;东、中、西部省份在技术进步效应、产业结构效应和区域结构效应等方面存在明显差异;农业内部的节水总效应显著大于工业内部的节水总效应;农业内部的产业结构效应最大,工业内部的技术进步效应最大。为了实现全国工农业水资源使用强度的持续下降,应大力推进农业和工业技术节水、加快产业结构调整和优化、加强科学管理和区域发展合作等。

Regional Factor Decompositions and Difference of the Change in Agricultural and Industrial Water Intensity in China

It is a core task to make water use intensity decrease in the process of save-water society construction.In the paper,the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) technique is used to analyze and compare the contribution of regional factors to the intensity change of agricultural and industrial water consumption in China from 2003 to 2009.The results show that: technological progress is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in water intensity,and industrial structure change is also an important contributor to the decline in water intensity,but regional economic scale change plays a minor role in the decline in water intensity;there are significant differences in the technological progress effect,industrial structure effect and regional structure effect to the decline in water intensity among eastern region,central region and western region in China;agriculture makes a greater contribution to the total decline in water intensity than industry;industrial structure change is the dominant contributor to the decline in water intensity in agricultural sector,but technological progress is the dominant contributor to the decline in water intensity in industrial sector.In order to maintain the decline trend in water intensity,some work such as technological progress,industrial structure change,efficiency management and regional cooperation,should be enhanced.