人的可靠性分析:历史、需求和进展

人的可靠性分析 (HRA)是人机工程、安全科学极为关注的问题。近年来 ,该领域的理论研究和应用技术发展很快 ,尤其将认知科学与人的失误的研究相结合 ,从失误模型到计算方法都更加与现实情景相吻合。笔者介绍了HRA的发展历史和相关的第一代HRA计算方法及其特点 ,并且就HRA在我国核电领域中的应用状况和前景进行了探讨 ,重点介绍了国际原子能机构赞助的中国核电厂操纵员可靠性研究项目 ,其成果对于进一步完善安全管理和提高我国核电厂人员可靠性提供了科学的依据和借鉴经验。

Analysis on Human Reliability:History,Demand and Progress

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a key issue in ergonomics and safety science. The theory and application technology in this area are progressing rapidly in recent years, especially when combining the cognitive science with human error research, it would more realistically cope with the analytical results from the model of error to calculation method. The development history, relevant calculation methods for the first generation of HRA and their characteristics are introduced. Its application in China's nuclear industry and its perspective are discussed. The IAEA sponsored project of “The reliability for Chinese operators in nuclear plant” is emphatically introduced,the achievements of which could provide scientific criteria and reference for further improving the reliability of the staff in nuclear plants.