基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的安全预警评估方法

针对系统安全风险评估和预警过程中,系统安全特性和各预警因素所存在的模糊不确定性问题,将熵理论和模糊数学相结合,提出一种基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的系统安全预警评估方法。在建立系统安全预警评估指标体系的基础上,首先,分析基于模糊熵理论确定预警指标权重的可行性,给出系统预警指标赋权算法;其次,建立基于模糊非对称贴近度确定系统安全等级的过程,第三,给出系统安全预警评估的具体计算步骤;最后,以人为因素系统的安全预警评估为例进行方法的实例验证。实例分析结果表明采用该方法所确定的系统预警指标权重更加符合客观实际,能有效解决系统安全预警评估中存在的模糊不确定性问题,系统预警决策结果合理有效。

Method for safety evaluation and early-warming based on fuzzy entropy and asymmetric proximity

For the fuzzy uncertainty of system safety and early-warming index in process of system＇ s risk evaluation and safety early-warming, by combining the theory of entropy and fuzzy sets, a safety evaluation and early-warming （SEEW） method was proposed based on fuzzy entropy and asymmetric proximity. Firstly, on the basis of building an SEEW index system, the feasibility of determining each index＇ s weight based on fuzzy entropy was analyzed, and the algorithm of deriving experts＇ weights was proposed. Secondly, the process of identifying system safety level based on asymmetric proximity in fuzzy sets was constructed. Thirdly, the calculation analysis steps of SEEW were given. Finally, the research was illustrated by an example of human-being system. The numerical results showed that the early-warming index＇ s weight determined based on fuzzy entropy was more accurate and the fuzzy uncertainty in process of system＇ s safety early-warming and early-warming was feasible and effective.