环境规制影响产业结构的路径与机制——基于湘鄂赣皖地区城市的实证研究

产业结构的转型升级是服务国家发展战略全局的重大议题。合理产业布局、走绿色发展之路是国家深入推进生态文明建设的重中之重。该研究构建了环境规制对产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化影响的双对数模型，以长江经济带湘鄂赣皖四省51个城市2003~2017年的数据为样本，研究环境规制对产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化的影响。为了研究不同经济发展水平下环境规制对产业结构影响的异质性，在模型中引入经济发展水平和环境规制的交互项。研究发现，经济发展水平在环境规制对产业结构转型升级的作用过程中存在替代效应和互补效应，且替代效应大于互补效应。即从长期来看，经济发展水平的提升能推动湘鄂赣皖地区城市整体产业结构转型升级。在城市的异质性方面，环境规制对上述地区二线城市的产业结构存在显著的优化作用。同时，环境规制对三线城市产业结构优化的积极作用大于三线以下城市。

The Path and Mechanism of Environmental Regulation Affecting Industrial Structure:An Empirical Study of Cities in Hunan,Hubei, Jiangxi and Anhui

The transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze River economic belt is an important issue in the national development strategy. The rational industrial layout to take the road of green development is the most important thing for the country to further promote the construction of ecological civilization. This paper constructs a double logarithmic model of the influence of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure. Based on the data of city agglomeration in Hunan, Hubei Jiangxi and Anhui province from 2003 to 2017, this paper studies the influence of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure. In order to study the heterogeneity of the influence, this paper introduces the interaction between economic development level and environmental regulation into the model. It is found that there is complementary effect and substitute effect on the level of economic development in the effect of environmental regulation on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. And the substitute effect is more than the complementary effect. In the long run, economic development can promote the transformation and upgrading of the overall industrial structure of the middle urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River economic belt. In terms of urban heterogeneity, environmental regulation has significant influence on optimizing the industrial structure of second-tier cities in the middle of the Yangtze River economic belt. At the same time, the positive effect of environmental regulation on the optimization of industrial structure of third-tier cities is greater than that of cities below third-tier.