中国城市建设用地扩张与经济增长重心迁移与脱钩关系研究

协调经济增长与土地资源利用关系是经济发展提质增速及可持续城市建设的关键，为探索城市建设用地扩张与经济增长的时空演变特征及其耦合趋势，运用重心模型、Tapio弹性指数对建设用地扩张与经济增长的空间耦合关系与脱钩状态进行测度，并构建计量模型，检验了经济、社会、政策等因素对城市扩张的影响。结果表明：（1）中国经济与建设用地规模保持双增长态势，中西部地区近年来建设用地扩张更加明显，经济和建设用地重心均呈现西南方向迁移，但空间耦合性逐渐减弱；（2）中国经济与建设用地脱钩关系不断恶化，脱钩状态分布格局变化明显，东部地区脱钩状况逐渐改善；（3）社会经济因素是城市扩张的关键推动力，政策、产业集聚等也在一定程度上促进城市扩张。未来要重点加强对中西部地区城市土地扩张的管控，对于东部地区而言，则要在经济转型的过程中寻求产业转型与土地利用转型的契合点，追求城市的精明增长。

Research on Shift Route of Gravity Center and Decoupling Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Growth in China

Coordinating the relationship between economic growth and land development is a key to improving the quality of economic growth as well as sustainable city.To explore spatial-temporal coupling characteristics of urban land expansion and economic growth, this paper adopts methods of Tapio decoupling index and the shift of gravity center to measure the spatial coupling relationship. Meanwhile, an econometric model is employed to test the influence of socioeconomic factors on urban land expansion. Results show that both economy and urban land area continue to grow. Urban land area of the central and western regions presents more significant increase. Gravity centers of urban land and economy shift to southwest gradually. However, spatial coupling relationship between economic growth and urban land expansion is gradually weakening. The decoupling condition continues to deteriorate. The distribution patterns of decoupling relationship changes significantly. The decoupling condition of the eastern region is generally improved. Social and economic factors are key drivers of urban land expansion. Factors of policy and industrial agglomeration also prompt urban expansion. Control of urban land expansion in the central and western regions should be further strengthened in the future. For the eastern region, a convergence of industry and land-use transformation needs to be sought and pursue a smart growth.