安徽省森林生态承载力及其重心迁移研究

以安徽省72个区县为研究样本,基于PSR(Pressure-State-Response)模型,运用熵权法与专家法确定综合权重,根据综合指数法计算森林生态承载力指数,并对2001～2016年安徽省森林生态承载力进行时空分析,同时在GIS技术支持下对安徽省县域森林生态承载力重心轨迹的演变规律进行研究.结果表明:安徽省森林生态承载力状况整体上得到了很大改善,全省大部分区县处于可载等级;政府林业投资强度、天然林保护面积占比、退耕还林面积占比、林分结构等指标权重较大;省内森林生态承载力水平分布不均衡,超载地区主要分布在皖北平原地区,可载地区则大多分布在皖西南山区;森林生态承载力重心在2001～2006年从西北向东南方向迁移,2006～2009年从东南向东北方向迁移,2009～2016再次向东南方向迁移,且迁移的速度明显加快.

Forest Ecological Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Gravity Center Transfer Analysis in Anhui Province

Taking case of Anhui’s 72 counties, the paper is based on PSR model. Forest ecological carrying capacity is evaluated and compared from 2001 to 2016 by entropy weight and expert method and comprehensive index to analyze spatial variability of the the forest ecological carrying capacity, and gravity analysis model is used to explore evolution law of the forest ecological carrying capacity gravity center in Anhui province based on GIS.The results show that government forestry investment intensity, the proportion of natural forest protected area,proportion of converted farmland to forest area and forest structure index weight are bigger.Anhui forest ecological carrying capacity index is better overall, most counties in the province are in the loading grade.however, its distribution is unbalanced in the different counties and the southwest forest ecological carrying capacity is the highest, the north is lowest.The forest ecological carrying capacity gravity center shifted from northwest to southeast from 2001 to 2006, and thereafter moved from the southeast to northeast from 2006 to 2009,at last it migrated to the southeast again until 2016 and the speed of migration was obviously accelerated.