风险规避、社会学习对农户现代灌溉技术采纳行为的影响——基于Heckman样本选择模型的实证分析

将社会学习引入现代农业技术采纳问题研究,既是对传统技术采纳与推广理论研究范式的拓展,也是理解农户技术采纳动态过程的关键.基于甘肃省张掖市498户农户微观数据,在用实验经济学方法测度农户风险规避程度的基础上,运用Heckman样本选择模型进行实证分析,探索风险规避、社会学习对农户现代灌溉技术采纳决策及采纳程度的影响,并引人交互项检验社会学习对风险规避的缓解效应.结果表明:(1)采纳现代灌溉技术的农户占样本总农户的比例为66.06％,这其中,样本户的平均采纳程度为47.26％.(2)风险规避、社会学习对农户现代灌溉技术采纳决策与采纳程度均有显著影响,农户风险规避程度越高,其采纳现代灌溉技术的可能性越低;社会学习能显著提升农户现代灌溉技术采纳决策与采纳程度.(3)从社会学习各维度的影响来看,相互学习对农户现代灌溉技术采纳决策及采纳程度均有显著正影响,学习他人对农户现代灌溉技术采纳决策及采纳程度有影响,但不显著.(4)社会学习有助于缓解风险规避对农户现代灌溉技术采纳行为的抑制作用.

Risk Aversion，Social Learning and Farmer’s Adoption of Modern Irrigation Technology: An Empirical Analysis by Heckman Sample Selection Model

The introduction of social learning into the study of the adoption of modern agricultural technology is not only the expansion of the theoretical research paradigm of the adoption and popularization of traditional technology, but also the key to understand the dynamic process of farmers ' technology adoption. Based on the microscopic data of 498 households in Zhangye, Gansu Province, this paper used the experimental economics method to measure the degree of risk aversion of farmers, and made an empirical analysis by using the Heckman sample selection model with modified selective deviation to explore the influence of risk aversion and social learning on the adoption and adoption degree of modern irrigation technology for farmers. Interactive items were introduced to test the mitigation effect of social learning on risk aversion. The results showed that: First, the proportion of peasant household adopting modern irrigation technology account for 66.06% of the total number of sample households, and the average adoption degree of the sample households is 47.26%. Secondly, risk aversion and social learning have a significant impact on the adoption and adoption degree of modern irrigation technology for farmers, and the higher the risk aversion of farmers, the less likely they are to adopt modern irrigation technology; social learning can significantly improve the adoption and adoption degree of modern irrigation technology for farmers. Thirdly, from the perspective of the influence of social learning in different dimensions, mutual learning has a significant positive impact on the adoption and adoption degree of modern irrigation techniques for farmers, and learning from others has an impact on the adoption and adoption degree of modern irrigation techniques for farmers, but it is not significant. Fourthly. social learning helps to mitigate the inhibitory effect of risk aversion on the adoption behavior of modern irrigation techniques for farmers.