基于SD的污水处理厂减排潜力与费用效益——以昆明市为例

针对当前城市污水处理厂进水浓度偏低，进而影响其污水处理潜力发挥和经济效益等问题，以昆明市为例，构建了基于系统动力学的城市排水系统模拟仿真模型.依据昆明市“十三五”规划目标，以2015年为基准年，设计4种减排情景，模拟预测了不同时期下不同情景的污水处理厂减排潜力及费用效益.结果表明：城市排水管网改造与强化管理对提高污水处理厂运行效率，充分挖掘其污水处理潜力至关重要，该情景近期与远期污水处理厂COD削减量较基准情景分别提高了314772，389126t；NH₃-N削减量较基准情景分别提高24223，27234t；费效比较基准情景分别降低0.2和0.17，污水处理潜力得到充分挖掘，经济效益明显改善.

Emissions reduction potential and cost-benefit of sewage treatment plant based on SD: a case study of Kunming City

In view of the low concentration of influent water, which affects the emissions reduction potential and economic benefit of sewage treatment plant, taking Kunming as an example, a simulation model of urban drainage system based on system dynamics was set up. According to the targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan of Kunming, this paper designed four emissions reduction scenarios based on 2015 as the base year, and then simulated and predicted the emissions reduction potential and cost and benefit of sewage treatment plants under different scenarios in different periods. The urban drainage network reconstruction and strengthening management was very important to improve the efficiency of sewage treatment plant and fully tap the potential of pollutant treatment. Compared with the benchmark scenario, the reduction of COD in the short-term and long-term increased by 314772t and 389126t, respectively; the reduction of NH₃-N in the short-term and long-term increased by 24223t and 27234t, respectively; the cost-benefit ratio of the sewage treatment plant in the short-term and long-term reduced by 0.2 and 0.17, respectively. Emissions reduction potential was fully tapped and the economic benefit is obviously improved.