我国水资源需求量动力学预测及对策建议

水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础和不可替代的自然资源。要实现党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标，水资源是必不可少的支撑条件。通过动力学模型，对未来20年我国工业、农业和生活需水量及总需水量进行预测，预测结果表明：按方案1，到2022年我国需水量约为5 500亿m3，按方案2，需水量约为7 400亿m3。而到2022年全国供水能力可能达到6 500亿m3 左右，可供水量为6 100～6 500亿m3 。方案1的预测结果小于可供水量，但这种方案很难实现。方案2的预测结果大于可供水量，出现较大缺口，在GDP增加1%的情况下，需水量增加1 800亿m3 左右，这也是我们面对的现实问题。

PREDICTION ON THE DYNAMICS OF WATER RESOURCE DEMAND WITH THE PROPOSAL OF CONTERMEASURES IN CHINA

Water resource is not only an important material base for social economic development, but also an irreplaceable natural resource. To realize the magnificent goal, the 16th National Congress of Communist Party of China has proposed to build a well-to-do society throughout the country, with water resource being the essential condition. This essay has established a dynamic model to predict the total water requirement in the country over the next two decades through the industry, agriculture and water demand of life. The prediction indicates that the water demand of our country is about 5 500 hundred million cubic meters by 2022 based on project 1,7 400 based on project 2, but the ability of national water supply may reach 650 billion cubic meters by 2020 and the water amount available to supply will be 6 100-6 500 hundred million cubic meters. The result of prediction in project 1 is less than the providing amount and larger in project 2. We are facing austere problems in project 2.