江苏省道路交通安全评价研究

笔者利用历年江苏省道路交通事故基本数据进行指标筛选,对道路交通安全状况采用灰色理论和主成分分析相结合的评价方法。从宏观角度,应用灰色聚类评价理论,对江苏省历年来道路安全发展趋势;横向结合统计软件SPSS采用主成分分析法,构造综合评价指标,比较研究江苏省各城市道路安全现状。新方法从纵向和横向对江苏省道路交通安全形势进行了较为全面的分析,取得较为满意的效果。

Research on Traffic Safety Evaluation of Jiangsu Province

Based on the index sieving of the basic data on traffic accident in Jiangsu province during past years, safety evaluation of road traffic is made by combining gray theory and principal component analysis. At the macroscopic level, gray clustering theory is used to analyze traffic safety developing trend in the past years. In the lateral direction, Principal Component Analysis is used to evaluate and compare traffic safety status among different cities in Jiangsu province with the assistant of SPSS(Statistical Program for Social Sciences) by constructing synthetic assessment index system. The result obtained by this new method is very satisfactory.