长江中下游地区冬小麦春季涝渍害灾损风险时空分布特征

通过长江中下游地区1961~2010年（3~5月）逐日气象资料，利用冬小麦春季涝渍害的监测指数模型和灾损风险评估模型进行历史反演，分析了春季涝渍害的发生和灾损风险区划的时空分布特征。结果表明：长江中下游地区冬小麦春季涝渍害频发于沿江及以南地区，且30%以上年份造成冬小麦减产。冬小麦春季涝渍害灾损风险空间分布特征明显、南高北低，年代际变化显著。其中，10 a尺度下以1960年代涝渍害灾损高风险范围最大，分布在鄂东、安徽的淮河以南及江苏的江淮西部地区，其次是1970年代和1990年代，2000年代高风险区范围最小，仅零星分布在江南局部地区；30 a尺度下各年代际涝渍害灾损风险呈高值区南缩减小、低值区逐渐扩大的趋势。

Spatial Temporal Variations of the Risk of Winter Wheat Loss Suffered From Spring #br# Waterlogging Disaster in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Reaches

Using the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 in the middle and lower Yangtze River reaches, this paper analyzed decadal variations of the spring waterlogging disaster and the risk of winter wheat loss suffered from spring waterlogging disaster by monitoring index model and assessment model. The results showed that winter wheat suffering from spring waterlogging disaster occurred frequently in the south regions of Yangtze River reaches, causing reduction in output for more than 30% years. And also, the decadal variations of risk of winter wheat loss due to spring waterlogging disaster are significant, with the features that highest risk ranges are maximal in the 1960s, which followed by the 1970s and 1990s, and the high risk areas are the smallest in the 2000s, with scattering features in Jiangnan regions. At the 30 a scale, the regions of high risk area of spring waterlogging disaster are gradually decreasing, and the lower risk areas are increasing. Key words：in middle and lower Yangtze River reaches; spring waterlogging disaster of wheat; the loss risk; decadal variation