“十二五”时期中国碳排放强度累积目标完成率分析

以中国大陆30个省市(自治区)为例，以2010年为基准年，在ESTDA的框架下，运用ESDA、LISA时间路径和LISA时空跃迁等方法分析了2011~2015年碳排放强度累积目标完成率的时空动态特征，同时，利用空间误差模型和地理加权回归模型分析了中国省域碳排放强度累积目标完成率的影响因素。结果表明：（1)中国省域碳排放强度累积目标完成率存在显著的空间差异性和空间自相关性；(2）东部地区具有相对稳定的局部空间结构；在空间依赖方向上，北京稳定性最强，新疆波动性最大；(3）中国省域碳排放强度累积目标完成率空间格局演化的整合性较弱，稳定性较强，协同高增长省域主要分布在中西部地区，协同低增长省域主要分布在东部地区；（4)影响中国省域碳排放强度累积目标完成率的重要因素是产业结构、能源强度、能源自给度和能源消费结构。关键词： 碳排放强度累积目标完成率；时空动态；LISA时间路径；LISA时空跃迁；地理加权回归模型

Analysis of Cumulative Target Completion Rate of Carbon Intensity in China During the Period of “Twelfth Five-Year”

Taking 30 provinces and autonomous regions of mainland in China as an example, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), local indicator of spatial association (LISA) time path and LISA space-time transitions were utilized to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics character of cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity under the frame of ESTDA during 2011-2015. Meanwhile, the spatial error model (SEM) and geographical weighted regression (GWR) were utilized to investigate the influencing factors of cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity in China’s provinces. The results as follows: ① There was a significant spatial disparities and spatial autocorrelation of the cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity in China’s provinces during 2011-2015. ② The eastern China had a relatively stable local spatial structure. In the spatial dependence direction, the strongest stability displayed in Beijing, the most volatility displayed in Xinjiang. ③ The integration of spatial pattern evolution for cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity was relatively weaker, however, the stability was stronger. Collaborative high growth provinces were concentrated in the central and western China, collaborative low growth provinces were concentrated in the eastern regions. ④ The important factors influencing the cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity included industrial structure, energy intensity, energy self-sufficiency and energy consumption structure.Key words：cumulative target completion rate of carbon intensity; spatial-temporal dynamics; LISA time path; LISA spatial-time transitions; geographical weighted regression