中国工业废水排放格局及其驱动因素

基于2005~2015年中国31个省（市、自治区）的环境统计数据，运用GIS空间分析方法和SARAR计量模型系统刻画了工业废水排放的时空格局演变与空间集聚特征，并进一步揭示其驱动因素及区域差异性。结果表明：（1）研究时段内，工业废水排放逐年减少，但废水排放总量不断上升，表明中国废水排放主导源已经发生替变；（2）中国工业废水排放量总体呈现“东南高、西北低”的省际格局特征，胡焕庸线可看作工业废水排放“热区”与“冷区”的分界线；（3）中国工业废水排放表现出明显的空间集聚特征，集聚趋势逐年加强；（4）SARAR模型估计结果显示，城镇化推进、第二产业发展、人口增长依次是中国工业废水排放的主要驱动因素。与全国相比，热区的SARAR模型估计结果与上述结论基本一致，但各驱动因素的影响效应略有不同

China’s Industrial Wastewater Discharge Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Based on the environmental statistics of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2005 to 2015, Using GIS spatial analysis method and SARAR econometric model, the temporal and spatial pattern of industrial wastewater discharge and the characteristics of spatial agglomeration are described, and their driving factors and regional differences are further revealed. The results showed that:（1）During the research period, the discharge of industrial wastewater decreased year by year, but the total amount of wastewater discharged continuously increased, indicating that the main source of wastewater discharge in China has been transformed.（2）China’s industrial wastewater discharge shows a spatial pattern of “southeast high and northwest low”, and Hu Huanyong line can be regarded as the dividing line between China’s industrial wastewater discharge “hot zone” and “cold zone”.（3）China’s industrial wastewater discharge has shown a clear spatial positive correlation, and spatial agglomeration trend increased year by year;（4）Estimates of SARAR model showed that urbanization rate, proportion of the secondary industry and number of resident population are main driving forces of China’s industrial wastewater discharge. Compared with the whole country, the SARAR model estimation results of the hot zone are basically the same as the above conclusions, but the effect of each driving force is slightly different