长江经济带城镇化对工业用水的脱钩研究 ——基于“十一五”和“十二五”时期的对比分析

长江经济带城镇化的发展为工业化提供了强劲动力，但同时工业用水的猛增促使水资源供需矛盾更加尖锐以及水环境污染愈发严重。通过建立工业用水与城镇化之间的脱钩模型，利用“十一五”和“十二五”时期的面板数据，研究长江经济带各省市工业用水与城镇化的脱钩状态，并在此基础上借助对数迪氏指数法考察工业用水量的具体影响因素。研究发现：(1）2006~2015年长江经济带城镇化对工业用水总体呈现脱钩状态，但“十一五”期间表现为弱脱钩状态，而“十二五”期间表现为强脱钩状态；（2)长江经济带各省市脱钩关系存在较大的时空差异，长江三角洲经济区、长江中游经济区以及长江上游经济区明显处于不同的脱钩状态；(3）城镇化影响工业用水的四大效应中，技术效应抑制工业耗水，产出效应则促进工业耗水，而结构效应和人口效应对工业用水的影响随时空变化而变化。据此，提出通过技术节水提高工业用水的利用效率，因地制宜促进区域平衡发展等建议。 关键词： 城镇化；工业用水；脱钩模型；LMDI模型；长江经济带

Study on Decoupling Effect of Urbanization of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to Industrial Water Use:Based on the Comparative Analysis of the Data of the Period of “11th Five Year Plan”and “12th Five Year Plan”#br#

The development of urbanization in the Yangtze River economic belt provides a strong driving force for industrialization. But at the same time, the rapid increase of industrial water has made the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources more sharper. Based on the panel data of the 11th Five-Year Plan and the 12th Five-Year Plan, this paper studies the decoupling of industrial water use from urbanization in the provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and examines the influencing factors of industrial water consumption by logarithmic Dee exponent method. The results shown as follows: ①From 2006 to 2015, urbanization of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a decoupling state for industrial water use. However, the state in the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan was weak, while became strong in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan. ②During the period of this study, there was a great difference in time and space between provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, the economic zone of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the economic zone of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River were obviously different in decoupling states. ③Among the four effects of industrial water in the process of urbanization, the technical effect inhibits industrial water consumption, while the output effect promotes industrial water consumption. The influences of structural effects and population effects on industrial water were various with time and space. On the basis of this, this paper suggests that the efficiency of of industrial water use should be improved through technical water saving, promoting balance development among the provinces. Key words：urbanization; industrial water use; decoupling model; LMDI model; Yangtze River Economic Belt