巢湖水质与流域农业投入的关联性研究

为探讨巢湖富营养化与流域农业生产投入资源的关联性,选择了化肥剩余、节水灌溉面积、农膜、水土流失治理等可能影响水体富营养化的因子;研究中采用相关分析与逐步回归的方法,同时,提出了一种结合Technique for Order Preferenceby Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)法计算化肥剩余量的方法.结果表明,巢湖流域农业生产投入的各种资源中,对巢湖水体富营养化影响较大的是化肥剩余、节水灌溉面积和农膜,并且化肥剩余的影响还存在1 a的滞后期.因此,有必要从提高化肥利用效率、改进灌排水方式并减少农业用水入手,以求节约资源,同时降低农业生产对巢湖水质的影响.

Association Study Between Water Quality of Chaohu Lake and Resources Input in Agriculture of Basin

In order to discuss the association between the water quality of Chaohu Lake and the resources input in agriculture of the basin,factors that may affect the lake eutrophication are chosen,such as surplus fertilizer,irrigated area with saved water,agricultural films,water and soil loss control and so on.The methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression are used.Furthermore,a new method,combined with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) method,calculating the surplus fertilizer is designed.The results indicate that among various resources input in agriculture of the basin the surplus fertilizer,irrigated area with saved water and agricultural films have a great influence on Chaohu Lake eutrophication.And one year’s lag phase between the water quality of Chaohu Lake and the surplus fertilizer is confirmed.Therefore,it is necessary to raise the utilization efficiency of fertilizer,to improve the irrigation way and to decrease the agricultural water consumption in order to conserve resources and to reduce the influence of agricultural production on the water quality of Chaohu Lake.