能源消费与环境污染的边限协整分析

能源的使用是导致环境恶化的主要原因之一,所以研究能源消费与不同污染物之间的关系就很有必要。本文以1985-2007年的年度数据为样本,建立了自回归分布滞后—误差修正模型,并运用边限检验对我国的能源消费与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:长期来看能源消费总量、煤炭占能源消费总量的比重和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对SO2的排放有重要影响,但是对工业烟尘排放量来说只有水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重的影响是显著的;短期来看煤炭占能源消费总量的比重对SO2排放的影响是显著的,能源消费总量和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对工业烟尘的排放有显著影响。由于能源消费总量和结构对不同污染物的长期和短期影响存在较大差异,所以在治理时应区别对待。

Bounds Testing for Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution

Energy use is one of the prime factors to lead to environmental deterioration. Thus it's necessary to research the correlation between energy use and different infectants. The authors selected annual data from 1985 to 2007 as sample, and did empirical research by the methodologies of bounds testing and autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM) to investigate the relationship between energy use and environmental pollution. The research indicated that, in the long term, total energy consumption, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption, the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption are observably influential to the discharging of SO_2, but for the discharging of industrial fumes, only the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption have distinct influence on the discharge of SO_2; in the short term, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption has distinct influence on the discharging of SO_2. Total energy consumption and the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption have remarkable influence on the discharging of industrial fumes. In the view of large differences between the long term and short term influence from different total energy consumption and structure on different pollutants, we should make a difference when control pollution.