加卸载响应比理论应用于堆积层滑坡预报

加卸载响应比理论是一种用于研究非线性系统失稳前兆和进行失稳预报的新理论,目前主要用于地震预报方面.对将该理论应用于探索滑坡前兆和滑坡中期预报作了探讨.降雨是影响斜坡稳定性的外部因素中最常变化的因素,也常是滑坡的诱发因素.针对降雨在堆积层滑坡孕育、发生过程中的关键作用,以降雨变化作为加卸载手段,建立了降雨型堆积层滑坡的加卸载响应比预测模型,并以新滩滑坡为例进行了预报.结果表明,文中提出的加卸载响应比方法可作为滑坡预报的手段,且在某些方面它比常规预报方法更具优势.

Application of loading/unloading response ratio theory to prediction of accumulative landslide

The loading/unloading response ratio(LURR) theory is a new method applied to studying precursor and prediction of instability for nonlinear systems.There are a few examples of this theory applied in landslide prediction and it is primarily used for earthquake forecast at present.This paper gives a further study on this theory applied in seeking for precursor and landslide forecast.Rainfall is the most frequently changing factor in all exterior factors that influence slope stability.And it is usually the factor that triggers landslide.As the key role played by rainfall on accumulative landslide is concerned,a prediction for the known Xintan landslide was carried out by means of LURR method,where the changing water effect was selected as loading/unloading measures.The result shows that LURR method can be used as a new means to forecast landslide,and it has an advantage over conventional landslide forecast methods in some aspects.