对SARS疫情预测与控制的数学模型研究——一种基于一般流传病模型的改进方法

笔者从一个简单的传染病数学模型着手 ,在考虑了SARS病毒的规律和具体控制方法的影响因素后 ,对一般传染病疫情的确定型预测模型进行改进 ,并引入 ρ、α及 β等随机系数 ,从疫情控制前、控制后、控后改进来建立对疫情预测和控制的数学模型 ,从而更加精确地刻画出SARS的发展和传播规律、人们的控制方法与其控制效果之间的关系 ,给出了模型的算法 ,并对其内涵及与疫情控制的关系给以评述。最后 ,用某地区实际数据验证了控后改进型数学模型与疫情发展规律符合 ,为定量研究这类传染病提供了简明实用的定量分析方法 ,具有一定的现实意义。

Study on Mathematical Model for SARS Prediction and Control--A Modification Based on the Model for General Infectious Diseases

Starting from a simple mathematical model for infectious diseases, considering the influencing factors of infectious regularity of SARS virus and its control method, the defined prediction model for general infectious diseases was modified, in which some random indexes such as ρ, α and β were introduced. A mathematical model for epidemic prediction and control was established from before and after control and modification after control, which could more precisely define the development and epidemic regularity of SARS, and the relationship between the control method and its efficiency. The calculation of the model was provided, the relationship between its connotation and epidemic control was evaluated. The verification results with data from an epidemic area coped with the real epidemic regularity. The model provides a simple and useful quantitative analytical tool for quantitative study of this kind of infectious disease, which is of realistic significance.