北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

北京市能源消费正面临着污染物减排和保障居民健康的双重约束.针对未来城市能源消费设计BAU(基准情景)和2个分别基于近期和中长期节能环保要求的受控情景(EC1、EC2),模拟预测了3个情景下主要大气污染物(SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5)在目标年(2020年)的排放水平,以确定大气污染减排潜力.分别采用综合暴露-反应关系模型(IER)和泊松回归模型,评估北京市居民对PM2.5暴露的健康风险,估算健康损失的经济价值.结果表明:相较BAU情景,在EC1情景下,SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5减排率分别达到52.95%、49.77%、32.82%、41.41%,可减少PM2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病219 783例,其中死亡1 295例、住院3 920例、门诊182 558例、患病32 011例,获得健康效益111.87×108元;在EC2情景下,SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5的减排率分别达到66.61%、63.42%、54.96%、57.44%,可减少PM2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病519 234例,其中死亡2 930例、住院9 248例、门诊427 070例、患病79 986例,获得健康效益290.10×108元.相较EC1情景,EC2情景可产生更大的减排潜力和居民健康效益.从空间分布上来看,北京主城区因能源方案优化获得的健康效益较大,约占总健康经济效益的60%.

Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potentials of Key Air Pollutants and Health Benefits for Residents of Beijing

Abstract: Energy consumption in Beijing is closely connected to the dual targets of reducing pollutant emissions and preventing residents'' health problems from air pollution. Based on the short and long-term policies for energy conservation and emission reduction, three scenarios of energy consumption including business as usual (BAU) and two environmentally-controlled scenarios (EC1/EC2) were set up. The emissions under the three given scenarios were predicted for four key air pollutants SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 up to 2020 based on the levels in 2010''s. Compared with the BAU scenario, the reduction potentials of the four pollutants were determined under the two scenarios of EC1 and EC2. Regarding the exposure to ambient PM_2.5 pollution, an integrated exposure-response (IER) model and a Poisson regression model were employed respectively to estimate the residents'' health risks with relevant terminals including premature deaths and related illnesses, on the basis of which economic losses were then evaluated. The results showed that compared with the BAU scenario, the potentials for emission reductions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in scenario EC1 were 52.95%, 49.77%, 32.82% and 41.41% respectively. The emissions reductions brought about by EC1 avoided in total 219,3 death or ill cases, among which 1,5 were premature death cases, 3,0 were hospitalized cases, 182,8 were outpatient cases and 32,1 were sick cases. Correspondingly, the health benefit was estimated to be worth 11.187 billion yuan RMB. The potentials for emission reductions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in scenario EC2 were 66.61%, 63.42%, 54.96% and 57.44% respectively. The emissions reductions brought about by scenario EC2 avoided in total 519,4 death or ill cases, among which 2,0 were premature death cases, 9,8 were hospitalized cases, 427,0 were outpatient cases and 79,6 were sick cases. Correspondingly, the health benefit was estimated to be worth 29.010 billion yuan RMB. Scenario EC2 showed more emission reduction potential and health benefits than scenario EC1. In terms of spatial distribution of the health benefits due to energy optimization, the benefits in the main urban districts accounted for about 60% of the total health benefits, which were much higher than those in the suburban areas.