南京市化学原料及化学制品制造业能源消耗预测

化学原料及化学制品制造业作为南京市高能耗、高污染产业,对其能源消耗总量及能源消耗结构进行预测,对节能减排具有重要意义。以2002—2012年能源消耗量弱化之后的数据为原始数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对2013—2020年南京市化学原料及化学制品制造业能源消耗总量以及主要能耗进行了预测。由于部分原始数据序列光滑性较差,所建预测模型的精度较低,使用平均弱化缓冲算子对其进行处理。结果表明,处理之后建模精度提高,预测的结果更加准确。

The Energy Consumption Prediction of Nanjing Chemical Materials and Chemical Products Manufacturing

Chemical materials and chemical products industry is a high energy consumption and high pollution industry in Nanjing ,so it has great significance to predict its total energy consumption and energy consumption structure for energy sav-ing .In this paper ,the energy consumption of the years 2002—2012 after weakening is used as the original data to establish the GM (1 ,1) model ,and predict the total consumption of 2013—2020 Nanjing chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing ,as well as its main energy consumption .As the part of the original sequence data's smoothness is poor ,the accuracy of prediction models is low and an average of weakening buffer operator is used to process the raw data in this pa-per .The results show that modeling accuracy is indeed higher than the original after the treatment .