安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。

The Principle of Reducing Change for Safety and the New Model of Accident Cause of C-S-R

In order to develop safety principles and provide effective methods for accident prevention, control and investigation, the principle of reducing change for safety was put forward according to the mechanism of the impact of change on system safety, and its connotation and research significance of the principle were explained. Then the system-changes classification case as well as a new definition and classification of accident causes were put forward based on the principle of reducing change for safety. Also, a new model of accident cause of C-S-R (Change-System-Reaction) was constructed based on the principle of reducing change for safety. Finally, the feasibility of the principle and the new model of accident cause of C-S-R were verified based on an accident case. The results show that the change will lead to an accident if it exceeds the limited level of the system. The principle of reducing change for safety and the new model of accident cause of C-S-R have sufficient practicability.