基于HFACS的中国特别重大煤矿事故研究

特别重大煤矿事故一直被认为是中国最严重的社会问题之一。本论文的研究目标有两个。首先,分析中国特别重大煤矿事故的致因因素;其次,定量考察事故致因因素间的相互作用关系。基于HFACS模型,在层级层面上,94起特别重大煤矿事故的实证表明:"不安全行为"的发生频率最高;在类别层面上,"监管不力"的发生频率最高;在指标层面上,"对违法行为失察或制止不力"的发生频率最高。借助OR技术,计算得出上一层级对下一层级指标的影响关系,并得到了一系列致因因素间的影响路径,这为遏制和预防特别重大煤矿事故提供了"路线图"。

Study on the Special Major Coal Mine Accidents in China based on HFACS

The high frequency of special major coal mine accidents has long been regarded as one of the most serious problems in China. This paper has two objectives: to analyze the contributory factors of special major coal mine accidents in China;to quantitatively examine the relationships between the contributory factors. Based on the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS), at the general level, the empirical result of 94 cases of special major coal mine accident shows that the frequency of 'unsafe behavior' is the highest;at the category level, the frequency of 'poor supervision' is the highest;at the indicator level, the frequency of 'oversight or ineffective against violations' is the highest. With the help of OR technique, the influence relationships between each level and the succeeding level are calculated and a series of causal pathways are obtained, which provides a 'road map' for the prevention and control of the special major coal mine accidents.