一种主动功能约束视域下的复杂系统事故预防模型

复杂系统事故发生模式具有多样性、不确定性的特点。传统的被动式、以失效因果分析为导向的事故预防模型虽然能够较为有效地防止或者减少同类事故的发生,但无法预防未发生过的新事故,因此并不适用于事故模式多样的复杂系统的事故预防。为了更加系统、全面地降低复杂系统的事故风险,需从更加主动的、前瞻性的视角分析如何使系统保持正常的功能。根据控制系统中的功能约束原理,并以功能分解与共振分析模型(ACAT/FRAM)为建模工具,提出一种主动功能约束视域下的复杂系统事故预防模型。该模型通过将复杂系统进行功能分解与抽象,以闭环控制关系对功能进行耦合关联,得到复杂系统要素的正常功能约束结构。基于该模型的事故预防机制在于保证系统各要素以及要素间的正常功能,据此可制定面向多种事故模式的事故预防措施。

An Accident Prevention Model for Complex Systems from the Perspective of Proactive Functional Constraints

The accident patterns of complex systems are characterized by diversity and uncertainty. Although traditional passive accident-causing models based on causality analysis can effectively prevent or reduce the occurrence of similar accidents, new accidents that have never occurred can not be prevented. Therefore, they are not suitable for the prevention of complex system accidents with various accident patterns. In order to reduce the accident risk of complex systems more systematically and comprehensively, it is necessary to analyze how to maintain the normal functions of the systems from a more positive and proactive perspective. Therefore, an accident prevention model of complex system in the view of proactive functional constraints is proposed according to the principle of functional constraints in control systems and the ACAT/FRAM modeling tools. By decomposing and abstracting the functions of complex systems and coupling them with closed-loop control relations, the normal functional constraints of complex system elements are obtained. The accident prevention mechanism of this model is to ensure the normal functions and functional constraints of the system elements. Accordingly, the accident prevention measures for various accident patterns can be formulated.