基于突发事件机理分析的风险评估方法研究及应用

近年来,我国部分城市开展了城市安全风险评估工作。为了能够得到科学的风险评估方法和有效的结果,本文基于突发事件机理分析及单一事件链,对城市安全风险评估方法进行了研究及应用。通过引入控制因子,构建基于突发事件机理分析的单一事件链模型,并将该模型转化为风险评估工作的指标体系,并将该指标体系在某区城市安全风险评估工作中进行了应用,对该区17种单位或场所,涉及到的18类风险,共计201家企业进行风险级别评估。最终得出该区17种单位或场所中每种单位或场所的整体风险等级,以及重大风险数量的占比情况,为该区提出有针对性的风险管控意见奠定了一定基础,并对本文的局限性和下一步研究方向提出一些看法和意见。

Research and Application of Risk Assessment Method based on Mechanism Analysis of Emergent Events

In recent years, urban safety risk assessment has been carried out in some cities in China. In order to obtain scientific risk assessment methods and effective results, this paper studies and applies urban safety risk assessment methods based on the analysis of emergency mechanism and single event chain. By introducing control factors, a single event chain model based on the mechanism analysis of emergencies is constructed, and the model is transformed into an index system for risk assessment. The index system is applied in the urban safety risk assessment of a certain district. A total of 201 enterprises evaluate the risk level of 17 units or places in the district, involving 18 types of risks. Finally, the overall risk level of each of the 17 units or places in the region and the proportion of the number of major risks are obtained, which lays a certain foundation for putting forward targeted risk management and control opinions in the region. Some opinions and suggestions on the limitations of this paper and the future research directions are also put forward.