区域经济重心及 COD、SO_2、TSP排放重心演变路径分析——以江苏省为例

运用重心模型，采用1996~2006年江苏省经济和环境数据，计算出各年份GDP、工业产值、COD、SO ₂和TSP排放重心坐标，揭示江苏省经济重心和环境污染排放重心变化轨迹及演变规律，以期为江苏省环境宏观战略决策及生态省建设提供理论参考。研究表明，经济重心总体上向东南方向偏移，GDP重心偏移距离为14.81 km，工业产值重心偏移距离为12.84 km；经济重心在南北方向上的偏移程度大于东西方向的偏移程度。环境污染排放重心也向东南方向偏移，COD和TSP排放重心轨迹呈现较大变化，SO2排放重心轨迹变动较小；COD排放重心偏移距离为79.26 km，SO₂排放重心偏移距离为15.73 km，TSP排放重心偏移距离为42.24 km；各污染排放重心轨迹在不同时段表现出不同特点。COD、SO₂和TSP排放重心相对于经济重心偏向于西北方向，且COD排放重心近年来明显趋向于工业产值重心；COD排放重心和TSP排放重心与经济重心存在着强正相关.

EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC AND COD,SO2,TSP EMISSION GRAVITY CENTERS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

With the economic and environmental data collected from 13 cities of Jiangsu Province form 1996 to 2006,gravity centre coordinates of GDP, industrial output,COD,SO₂ and TSP were calculated  by the gravity centre model,and dynamic evolution tendencies and rules of these gravity centers were found.The results show that economic gravity centers present dynamic tendency to higher longitude and lower latitude.The shift distances of GDP and industry output gravity centers were 14.81 km and 12.84 km respectively,and the distances were longer in latitude than in longitude.Environmental pollution emission gravity centers present the similar change tendency.However,COD and TSP emission gravity centers changed more than that of SO₂.The shift distances of COD,SO₂ and TSP emission gravity centers were 79.26 km,15.73 km and 42.24 km respectively,and different evolutional characteristics were presented in different period.Compared with economic gravity centers,COD,SO₂ and TSP emission gravity centers lied in northwest,and COD emission gravity center obviously inclined to industrial output.The change of pollution emission gravity centers could be summarized to the results of economic development, industry structure,technologies,and policies.