气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响

为确定气候变化对土地荒漠化影响，以干燥度指数及A1，A2，B1和B2气候变化情景分析了气候变化对我国干旱区分布范围的影响. 模拟结果表明:气候变化将导致我国极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围缩小，干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围扩大. 极端干旱区分布范围缩小并被干旱区所代替，半干旱区向半湿润区东、南部方向扩展，湿润区东北部和西部被半干旱和半湿润区所代替. 极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈负相关性，干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈正相关性. 多元回归分析表明，干旱区和极端干旱区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而减少；半湿润区和湿润区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而增加；除A1情景外，其他气候情景下半干旱区分布范围均随全国年降水量增加而减少；湿润区分布范围随全国年均气温增加而减少，其他气候区范围随全国年均气温升高而增加. 随着气候变化，我国荒漠化范围将增加，干旱胁迫总体上减弱. 

Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution and Range of Arid Regions

To understand the potential effects of climate change on desertification,the impact of climate change on arid regions in China was analyzed using an aridity index and climate change scenarios A1,A2,B1 and B2.The simulated results showed that climate change in China will cause a decrease in the total area of hyper-arid and humid regions,but an increase in the total area of arid,semi-arid and semi-humid regions.The hyper-arid regions will be replaced by arid regions.The semi-arid regions will expand south and...