基于生态安全约束的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策

为确保我国旧工业建筑(区)再生利用项目方案设计阶段免受生态破坏与环境污染等因素的影响,提出了"生态安全约束"这一概念。考虑到决策者面对收益和损失的不同态度引入了前景理论,建立了生态安全约束下基于前景理论再生利用项目规划设计方案决策模型。首先,构建了包含总体规划、建筑设计、传承保护等因素的决策指标体系,并采用AHP与熵权相结合的方法计算权重,使得权重计算结果不仅体现了决策者的主管意愿,也反映了再生利用项目的客观规律;其次,以决策者预期值作为参考点给出期望矢量,将不同属性的决策数据信息规范化处理得初始决策矩阵,再根据指标间相对参考点的差值建立前景决策矩阵,通过计算各方案的综合前景值以确定最优方案。最后,通过北京首钢、云南871、陕西老钢厂、太原锅炉厂等5个实例的再生利用项目规划设计方案决策过程加以验证。结果表明,模型计算过程清晰,结果可信度高,验证了模型的合理性和科学性,可为规划设计阶段有效控制生态环境破坏与厂区环境污染提供新的思路。

Decision-making of planning and design scheme for regeneration project based on ecological safety constraints

The paper proposed a concept of "ecological safety constraints"in hoping to ensure that the regeneration project of the old industrial buildings( districts) at home from being influenced by such factors as the ecological damage and environmental pollution in the design stage. Considering the different attitudes of decision makers towards benefits and losses,the prospect theory was introduced,and the decision-making model of planning and design scheme of regeneration project based on prospect theory under the ecological safety constraints was established. Firstly,we built up a decision-making index system,including the overall planning,the architectural design,the inheritance protection and some other factors concerned. And then,it is also necessary to pound on repeatedly the factors involved through joining AHP with the entropy weight to make the results of the calculation not only reflect the decision-maker’s executive attempts,but also respond to the objective obligations for regenerating the goals of such old industrial buildings( districts).Secondly,the expectation vector has to be given by taking the expected key value of the decision maker as the reference point to realize the initial decision matrix by normalizing the different data and information goals. And,in so doing,the prospect decision matrix can be established to reflect the outstanding distinction of the relative reference points of the indexes so as to determine the optimalilized scheme by working out the comprehensive foreground value of each scheme. Finally,we have managed to verify the decision-making process of the planning and designing scheme for the regeneration projects of the old industrial buildings( districts) by taking Beijing Shougang( literally,the capital steel-making company),Yunnan 871 project,Shaanxi Old Steel Plant and Taiyuan Boiler Plant as the 5 sampling cases. The results showed that the calculation process turns out to be clear-cut with the results being credible and confidential to verify the rationality and scientificity of the model. It can thus be expected to provide a novel idea for controlling the ecological environment damage and factory environmental pollution effectively in planning and designing stage for the out-of-date industrial construction items or even the entire industrial districts.