基于地理探测器的土地开发度时空差异及其驱动因素

土地开发度（LDD）是衡量区域人类活动对土地开发利用的程度。分析土地开发度的时空差异和驱动机制能更加深刻的认识人类活动与区域土地利用之间的关系，为研制区域差别化的土地管控政策提供依据。通过分析全国345个城市2009~2015年土地开发度的时空差异，并采用地理探测器探测其驱动因素及其空间差异。研究表明：（1）全国土地开发度从2009年的4.1%持续增加到2015年的4.47%，并在东、中、西3个区域上表现出显著的空间差异；（2）345个城市的土地开发度总体呈上升趋势，且呈现明显的空间差异。土地开发度高的城市主要在城市群集聚，并在长江经济带、丝绸之路经济带等区域表现较快增长。（3）全国土地开发度由投资驱动和人口驱动为主转变为产业驱动和人口驱动为主，东、中、西3个区域土地开发度的主导驱动因素有所差异。

Spatiotemporal Differences and Driving Factors of Land Development Degree in China Based on Geographical Detector

Land development degree (LDD) has been a useful approach for measuring the extent to which human activities have influenced the land development. The analysis of spatiotemporal differences and driving factors of land development degree contribute to a deeper understanding on the relationship between human activities and regional land utilization, which provides mechanistic information for formulating different regulation policy for regional land use. The study analyzed the spatial pattern of land development in 345 cities and discovered the driving factors of LDD by using geographical detector. The results showed that China’s LDD has increased from 4.1% to 4.47% between 2009 and 2015. The LDD of 345 cities have increased generally and presented significant spatiotemporal differences among the three economic regions. Cities with high LDD were concentrated mainly in megalopolis, which grew faster in Yangtze river delta and the Silk Road Economic Belt. The main driving factors for LDD have changed from investment and population to industry and population at the national scale. The influence of these factors also varies in different regions. In eastern region, population and industry have driven the LDD instead of investment and industry; population was the main driver of LDD in central region; while the investment played an increasingly important role in western region.