基于不同卫星降雨产品的澴水花园流域径流模拟比较研究

卫星降雨产品作为缺资料或无资料地区估算流域降雨径流的一种途径，适用性尚需大量实验研究。以澴水花园流域为研究区，综合评估了TRMM(3B42V7)、TRMM_RT(3B42V7)、PERSIANN CDR和CMORPH 4个卫星降雨产品在流域平均雨量计算与径流模拟中的精度，设置多方案与多种水文模拟情景全面检验各降雨产品的可靠性与适用性。研究表明：(1)在研究期2002~2013年，没有一个卫星降雨产品对所有精度评价指标均表现最优，PERSIANN始终表现为最差；(2)各卫星降雨产品对于不同年代和不同统计时段的精度差异明显，且一般汛期精度高于全年精度。各年代精度最高的卫星降雨产品在年与汛期尺度上与实测雨量相关系数均超过0.9；(3)各卫星降雨产品对有雨日降雨探测能力较强，但空报率较高，所有卫星降雨产品对于年最大1 d、3 d和7 d降雨估算误差较大，无法达到可利用精度；(4)采用卫星降雨产品进行径流模拟时，以相应的卫星降雨进行水文模型参数率定可获得更高的模拟精度。TRMM_RT与CMORPH日径流模拟精度较好，CMORPH月径流模拟精度较好。总体而言，CMORPH更适用于径流模拟。对于典型的3场大洪水模拟结果表明，TRMM_RT和CMORPH对洪峰与洪量（径流深）的模拟精度相对较高。

Hydrological Evaluations of Runoff Simulations Based on Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products over the Huayuan Catchment

Satellite precipitation products, as a new data source for estimating rainfall and runoff in watersheds with sparse or no data, still require extensive experiments to evaluate their applicability. This study systematically evaluated the accuracies of 4 satellite precipitation products, i.e. TRMM(3B42V7), TRMM_RT(3B42V7), PERSIANN CDR, and CMORPH, in calculating catchment averaged rainfall and simulating runoff for the Huanshui River Huayuan watershed; the applicability and reliability of each precipitation product were thoroughly examined by postulating multiple plans and hydrological scenarios. Results indicate that: (1) None of the 4 tested satellite precipitation products is consistently optimal in all plans/scenarios during the study period 2002 2013, whilst the performance of PERSIANN product is always the worst; (2) Differences in the accuracy of satellite precipitation products in different years and statistical periods are distinct, and the accuracy in flood period is higher than that for the whole year. The correlation coefficients between satellite based rainfall data (derived from the most accurate satellite precipitation product in each year) and the gauge rainfall data are higher than 0.9 at annual and flood period time scales; (3) Satellite precipitation products present good performance in rainfall estimation during rainy days, though with relatively high no hitting rates. All satellite precipitation products show relatively bigger error in estimating annual maximum 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day precipitation amounts, failing to meet the required precision for applications; (4) For runoff simulations, calibrating hydrological model parameters based on the corresponding product would achieve higher accuracy. TRMM_RT and CMORPH products are more accurate in daily runoff simulations, while CMORPH product outperforms in monthly runoff simulations. In conclusion, CMORPH product is more applicable for runoff simulation. As suggested by the simulations of 3 typical flood events, TRMM_RT and CMORPH products are of higher accuracy in simulating flood peak and volume (runoff depth).