基于土地自然与经济双重属性的西部地区人口承载力测算

为明确我国西部土地人口承载力是否能够满足人口增长、经济发展和人民生活质量提高的需要，进而为土地利用规划和人口发展战略的制定提供依据，在综合考虑土地的自然属性和经济属性基础上，对我国西部地区2020年、2025年、2030年的人口承载力进行测算。采用统计模型分析与灰色预测的方法测算基于土地自然属性即食物生产能力的人口承载力，同时，从土地经济属性的角度，采用基于土地功能的产业活动关联法来测算人口承载力。最后利用短板分析法综合权衡两类基于土地不同属性角度的测算结果，确定西部地区实际的土地人口承载力，并与未来人口数量进行比较。测算结果显示：(1)从总体上看，2020年、2025年、2030年西部地区人口承载力分别是6.50亿人、6.73亿人、6.94亿人，而与之对应的未来人口数量是3.81亿人、3.87亿人、3.92亿人，即西部地区土地能供养的人口数大于未来人口数量；(2)从省级区域分布来看，其中大部分地区能满足未来人口增长的需要，内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、宁夏、新疆等11省份的土地都能承载各省未来人口的发展，只有青海省人口承载力低于未来人口数量。这表明西部地区整体的土地承载力能满足人口发展所需，但存在区域不协调，青海省土地承载力与人口发展需求尚不匹配。

The Calculation of Population Carrying Capacity Based on Land Natural and Economic Dual Attributes of Western Region in China

In order to determining whether the population carrying capacity of land in Western China can meet the needs of population growth, economic development and the improvement of the life quality, and also to providing the basis for land use planning and population development strategy, this paper calculates the population carrying capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030 in Western China based on the natural and economic attributes of the land.It uses the statistical model and grey prediction method to calculate the population carrying capacity based on the natural property of land. On the other hand, it uses the industrial activity correlation method of land function to calculate the population carrying capacity from the angle of land economic attribute. Finally, it uses the short board method to weigh the two calculation results and determines the actual land population carrying capacity of the western region, and compares it with the number of future population. The results show that the population carrying capacity of western region in 2020, 2025 and 2030 are 650 million, 673 million and 694 million people, while the number of population in the future are 381 million, 387 million and 392 million. The population carrying capacity of the western region should support the future population. From the point of regional distribution, 11 provinces can meet the need of future population growth such as Neimenggu, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, etc. Only the population carrying capacity in Qinghai province is lower than the future population. It shows that the overall land carrying capacity of the western region can meet the needs of the population development.But there is regional incoordination.Land carrying capacity of Qinghai province will not match its population development needs.