我国三大城市群城镇化水平对碳排放的影响

在新型城镇化进程深入推进的背景下，选择我国城镇化发展水平较高的京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群为研究对象，利用STIRPAT模型分析了三大城市群城镇化水平与碳排放之间的关系。结果表明：三大城市群城镇化水平与碳排放之间呈现出先下降后上升的“正U型”曲线关系；经济发展与碳排放之间存在着“倒U型”的曲线关系；人口总量和能源强度对碳排放存在显著的正向影响，产业结构对碳排放影响较小。在城镇化发展早期加快城镇化发展速度，而在城镇化发展到一定阶段后，控制人口规模，降低能源强度，均可实现减少二氧化碳排放的目标。

Impacts of Urbanization on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Three Urban Agglomerations of China

Under the background of deeply promoting New-type urbanization, this paper chooses Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as the research objects to analyze the relationship between urbanization level and carbon dioxide emissions by the STIRPAT model. The results show that the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in the three major urban agglomerations presents a U type curve, and the relationship between the economic development and carbon dioxide emissions presents an inverted U type curve. The total population and energy intensity exert a significant positive influence on the carbon dioxide emissions, but the industrial structure has less impact on it. Therefore, the purpose of carbon dioxide emissions reduction can be achieved by accelerating urbanization process in the early phase, and by controlling the population scale and reducing the energy intensity when urbanization level reaches to a certain degree.