我国中部地区城市群多中心结构的增长效应

多中心城市群是要素在经过多重集聚扩散后形成的空间均衡，已成为城市群发展的政策目标。我国城镇化水平发展时间较短，地区差异较大，因此需结合具体城市群的发展阶段研究其空间优化问题。基于2005~2014年中部六大城市群的市域数据，从人口规模分布和产业空间布局两个维度出发，定量分析其城市群空间结构对地区经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：（1）在控制了其他影响因素之后，城市群人口空间结构会对经济增长的影响呈现倒“U”型曲线特征，即由单中心向多中心结构转变；（2）产业布局的空间集中对城市群经济增长具有正向促进作用。这一结论对中部地区如何合理有效引导要素等资源流动来拓展发展新空间、优化发展新格局和提升经济发展效率和城镇化质量具有一定的参考价值和政策意义。

The Effect of Multi-Center Structure of Urban Agglomerations in Central China

Multi-center urban agglomeration is a spatial equilibrium formed by the multiplication and diffusion of elements, and it has become the policy goal of urban agglomeration development. The period of urbanization process in our country is relatively short, and there are big differences among regions. Thus, we need to take the development stages of specific urban agglomerations into consideration when studying the spatial optimization problem. Based on the data of the six urban agglomerations in Central China from 2005 to 2014, the paper analyzes the impact of urban spatial structure on regional economic growth in two dimensions; the population distribution and the industrial spatial distribution. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of population, the paper shows the evidence that the agglomerations of Hubei, Jiangxi and Shanxi Province that are single-centered currently are evolved in a multi-centered structure trend. In contrast, the agglomerations of Anhui, Hunan, and Henan Province are in a state of decentralized distribution and agglomerate to the central cities gradually. (2) From the perspective of industry, the average values of SP are higher in the agglomerations of Jiangxi and Shanxi, which means their spatial distribution of industries is more dispersed, while other urban agglomerations are relatively concentrated. In general, the SP index of the urban agglomerations in Central China all increasing at different rates, indicating that the industrial spatial distribution of all urban agglomerations is developing toward a multi-centered orientation gradually.(3) The paper finds an inverse U-shaped relationship between population structure and economic growth, which means a transition from a single-center to a multi-center structure. (4) The industry spatial agglomeration has a positive effect on the economic growth. As a key new urbanization area in the country, Central China will have a large population and industries entering the urban areas in the future. Therefore, it should expand its new development space by guiding the flow of resources such as capital effectively, optimize the new pattern of development, and enhance the efficiency of economic development and the quality of urbanization. In this context, the above conclusion has extremely important policy implications.