具有危险源性质的复杂系统安全行为演化研究

为解决具有危险源性质的复杂社会技术系统安全行为演化动力机制问题,针对系统生命周期长、影响因素多的特点,以日本福岛核泄漏事故为例,创建扩展型功能共振模型,用于描述系统内安全事故影响因素的作用过程。而后将系统相关主体分为实施方、业主方和第三方共3类,运用演化博弈方法深入研究发现,三方所承担的安全执行成本、安全处罚成本及事故成本之间的数量关系变化是系统安全行为演化发展的动力,3类成本失衡引发的监管机制失效是导致此次核泄漏事故的根源,并据此提出保持政府独立性和权威性、限制业主行为、建立项目责任主体终生追溯机制和采用立体处罚方式的建议。

Research on Safety Behavior Evolution of Complex Systems with Hazard Property

To find the evolution causes of Complex Socio-Technical Systems as Hazard Source,in view of the fact that the life cycle of the system was long and there were many factors affecting the system,the extended functional resonance model were created for describing the process of interaction among the accident factors from the nuclear accident caused by "3·11" earthquake in Japan.By using the evolutionary game approach with three agents like practitioners,owners and the third one,the conclusion was drew that the cause for the evolution of the system was the variation in implementation costs,security costs and accident costs.The imbalance of the three costs led to the failure of a tripartite monitoring mechanism which caused the nuclear accident in Japan.According to the conclusion above,some suggestions were given to improve the safety management such as to maintain the independence and authority of the government,to restrict the behavior of the owners and to use a variety of means of punishment.