核电厂人因事故预防的定量化决策

人因事故的分析与预防是核电厂安全运行和管理的重要内容。笔者提出的系统安全性层次分析法主要从两种角度考虑系统的安全性:专家能力权值和安全性矩阵的建立。采用专家判断矩阵确定事故原因对系统安全性的重要度排序。举例某核电厂事故定量分析进行说明,在对事故进行原因分析基础上,构建事故影响因素层次模型,利用层次分析法分析得出事故原因重要度排序由高到低依次为组织管理、操作人员、人机界面、培训与设备状态,并据此提出了相应的预防与改进措施,为安全性要求较高的复杂工业系统提供事故预防的定量化决策依据。

Quantified Decision-making for Prevention of Accident Caused by Human Factor in Nuclear Power Plant

Analysis and prevention of accident caused by human factor is of great importance in safe operation and safety management of a nuclear power plant. The system safety analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed mainly from two viewpoints, i.e. expertise weight and safety matrix. It adopts expertise weight to confirm the importance rank of accident elements to system safety. A case is exemplified to illustrate the construction of an accident effective elements hierarchy model based on the analysis on accident causes. The sequence of importance of cause factors has been arranged as organizational management, operators, man machine interfaces, state of training and equipment. Referring to this sequence, corresponding prevention and improvement strategies are put forward to provide quantified decision-making criteria for the complex large-scale industrial project which needs high safety requirement.