基于Holt-Winters模型的济南泉域地下水资源保护研究

以济南名泉趵突泉历年的地下水位为研究对象,对2012年5月至2017年11月趵突泉地下水位波动规律进行分析,评价保泉形势,探索保泉供水的有效措施。通过模型的比选,最终确定利用HoltWinters指数平滑加法模型,从时间序列的角度分析预测趵突泉地下水位的变化趋势,并计算出了模型的拟合优度指标和拟合统计量。决定系数R2值为0.897,平稳的R2值为0.627,数值均较大且其余各项拟合优度指标均较好,说明模型的拟合效果整体精度较高。利用模型对2018年趵突泉的地下水位进行了预测并给出了预测值95%的置信区间,预测年平均水位为27.814 m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.291 m、谷值为27.329 m且谷值将出现于2018年的6月份,为近6年来的最低水位值,低于27.6 m的保泉红色警戒线,接近27.01 m的泉水停喷线。预测结果表明:2018年趵突泉将存在潜在停喷的危机,济南市的保泉任务依然严峻。为争取泉水持续喷涌,在此基础上提出了科学保泉建议和节水保泉措施,为济南市评判、预测、调整水系及地下水开采布局提供科学依据。

Study on groundwater resources protection in Jinan spring area based on Holt-Winters Model

Background, aim, and scope In this paper, the fluctuation law of groundwater table of Baotu Spring in Jinan spring area from May 2012 to November 2017 is analyzed. By analyzing and evaluating the situation of protecting spring water, exploring effective measures for protecting spring water area and supplying water for downtown Jinan. Materials and methods Based on the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters addition model is used to analyze and forecast the trend of the groundwater table in the Baotu Spring from a new evaluation index and perspective. And the goodness of fit index and the fitted statistics of the model were calculated. Results The coefficient of determination R² is 0.897, the stationary R² is 0.627. The calculated values are larger and the other indexes of the goodness of fit are all good, indicating that the model fitting effect is better overall accuracy. Discussion By using the model, the water table of Baotu Spring in 2018 is predicted and the confidence interval of 95% of the predicted value is given. The predicted average annual water table is 27.814 m,the spring water table fluctuates at a peak of 28.291 m, the trough is 27.329 m and the trough will appear in June 2018, the lowest water table for the last 6 years. This value is lower than the 27.6 m spring red cordon and close to the 27.01 m spring water spray line. Conclusions The forecast results show that there will be a potential crisis in Baotu Spring in 2018, and the task of spring preservation in Jinan will remain harsh. Recommendations and perspectives In order to strive for the continued spewing of spring water, the proposal of scientific spring preservation and the measures of saving water and keeping spring have been put forward. It will provide a scientific basis for Jinan City to judge, predict and adjust the layout of the water system and groundwater.