国外灾害风险评估模型对比分析

灾害风险评估模型是灾害风险管理的科学工具,为灾害应急管理决策提供技术支持。本文对国外几个应用较为广泛的灾害风险评估模型进行了系统总结,分析了风险评估的基本流程、方法及要点,从评估方法、应用特点、使用效果等多个角度对这些模型的优缺点进行详细的对比分析。同时,总结了灾害风险评估模型具备良好的科学性和实用性应符合的基本原则,并以本文介绍的风险评估模型为例,对其基本原则的符合性进行了对比分析。分析结果表明,灾害风险评估模型只有在科学性与实用性之间获得最佳平衡点,并与应急规划、风险管理与减灾过程充分结合才能获得最佳的应用效果;建立灾害风险评估模型尤其要重视公众充分参与、在风险相关部门和人群中通过风险沟通建立统一的认识、准确界定脆弱性人群、有效解决数学模型或专家判断的不确定性等关键问题。

Comparative analysis of several worldwide disaster risk assessment models

The disaster assessment models act as scientific tools for disaster risk management,as well as a technical support for emergency decision. In this paper,several foreign disaster risk assessment models applied widely are reviewed. The basic assessment procedures and methods of these models are concluded as well as main points. A comparative analysis for advantages and disadvantages of these models is conducted in view of assessment methods,application features and using effect. Meanwhile,the basic principles that a scientific and practical disaster risk assessment model should abide by are summarized. The compliances of these models on the principles are analyzed and compared in detail. According to the analysis results,a risk assessment model can possess the optimal applicable potential so long as it gains a good balance between scientificity and operability and integrates with emergency planning,risk management and mitigation process. During the process of building a risk assessment model,several crucial problems including widespread public participation,common understanding by risk communication within related sections and groups,vulnerable members identification and uncertainty from Mathematics and expert judgement should receive an adequate attention.