基于人误系统复合状态(MSHES)的人误防范理论研究

评析国内外以第一代人因可靠性分析(静态)、第二代人因可靠性分析(动态)为主体形成的人误防范理论和方法;针对目前不能量化人的生理、认知、心理等相关非结构性和非确定性参数和数据的"瓶颈",建立基于人-机-环系统业务流程的人误系统复合状态(Multiplex State ofHumanErrors System,MSHES)结构模型;探求运用粗糙集数据挖掘,对资深专业人员的经验规则信息、人因事故或事件分析的信息,挖掘人因层次结构中的根因与人误层次结构中的差错之间的关联关系,构建基于规则的人误防范专家系统结构模型;探究人的风险性评估和人误防范理论。

Study on Human Error Prevention Theories Based on MSHES

The theories and methods of human errors prevention based on the first and second generation Human Reliability Analysis(HRA) are reviewed and analyzed.Aiming at the bottleneck unable to quantify the non-structural and non-determinant parameters related to human physiology,cognition,psychology,a MSHES(Multiplex State of Human Errors System) structure model is established based on the operation flow of human-machine-environment system.According to the rule information from the sophisticated professionals' experience and human-error accidents,the correlation between the root causes of human factor hierarchy and the errors in human errors hierarchy is explored by means of rough set data mining.Finally,a structure model of human-error prevention expert system is set up based on these rules so as to probe into the theory of human errors prevention and human risk assessment.