“双碳”背景下河南省电力行业中长期控煤降碳路径

电力行业实现二氧化碳排放尽早达峰并加快脱碳进度,对河南省实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义.基于碳排放-能源集成模型（iCEM）,对河南电力行业“双碳”目标下控煤降碳路径开展情景研究.结果表明,综合考虑电源结构优化和技术进步等措施,河南省电力行业碳排放将于2028~2033年实现碳达峰,电力行业煤炭消费量在“十四五”期间仍呈持续增长趋势,达峰区间为2027~2031年.大力发展以风电和太阳能为主的清洁能源,采用更多低碳零碳热源、提高外调电比例、加大煤电节能改造是碳达峰目标约束下河南省控煤主要措施.碳中和阶段,布局内陆核电是缓解河南省控煤压力与实现“双碳”目标的重要路径之一,需要提前开展论证研究.加速推进落后机组淘汰和现役机组节能改造、加速发展非化石能源发电、超前规划外调电,并配套完善煤电退出和调峰的市场机制、增加系统灵活性、加快外引清洁能源保障等政策,是河南省电力行业控煤降碳路径有效的政策保障.

Coal Control and Carbon Reduction Path in Henan Province's Power Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Neutralization Target: A Medium- and Long-term Study

Achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions and accelerating decarbonization progress in the power industry is of paramount significance to Henan Province''s objective of achieving carbon peak and neutrality. In this study, the Carbon Emission-Energy Integrated Model (iCEM) was employed to conduct scenario studies on the coal reduction and carbon reduction paths under the "dual-carbon" goal of Henan''s power industry. The results indicated that, by considering measures such as optimizing the power source structure and technological progress, Henan Province''s power industry carbon emissions will reach their peak between 2028-2033, with coal consumption in the power industry continuing to grow during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. With a peak range between 2027-2031, the peak value increased by 1881, 1592, and 11.48 million tce, respectively, compared with that in 2020. To control coal in Henan Province under the constraint of carbon peak goals, it is proposed to develop clean energy sources such as wind and solar power, use more low-carbon or zero-carbon heat sources, increase the proportion of external electricity supply, and enhance energy-saving transformation in coal-fired power plants. Accelerating the elimination of backward units and energy-saving transformation of existing units, accelerating non-fossil energy development, advanced planning for external electricity supply, improving market mechanisms for the exit of coal-fired power plants and peak regulation, increasing system flexibility, and accelerating external policies to ensure clean energy security are effective paths for controlling coal and reducing carbon emissions in Henan''s power industry. Additionally, inland nuclear power layout is one of the crucial paths to alleviate coal control pressure in Henan Province and achieve "dual-carbon" goals during the carbon-neutral stage. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct research on demonstrations in advance. Henan Province is highly dependent on energy from other provinces, and the power supply and demand situation in Henan Province will become increasingly tense in the future. It is necessary to support Henan Province from the State Grid and coordinate the construction of inter-provincial and inter-regional power transmission channels.