2006—2015年中国电力碳足迹及其生态压力分析

电力行业是我国节能减排的主力军.本文根据电力来源多样性特征,采用IPCC计算方法,结合净初级生产力模型,定量分析了中国2006-2015年电力消费碳足迹及其生态压力的变化,并将电力碳足迹生态压力与人均GDP进行脱钩分析.结果表明,2006-2015年,电力消费碳排放量经历了先升后降两个阶段,其中,2006-2013年,碳排放量稳步上升,2013年后开始逐渐下降,电力碳足迹生态压力与人均GDP之间主要呈弱脱钩关系,但在2013-2015年,开始出现强脱钩状态.可见在国家″十二五″政策引导下,推动经济结构转型调整,促进电力产业节能减排,已获得显著成效,但仍需继续努力,缓解电力消费过程给生态环境带来的压力.

Analysis of electricity carbon footprint and its ecological stress in China from 2006 to 2015

The power industry is the main sector in energy conservation & emission reduction in China. Based on the diversities of power sources, this paper adopts the IPCC calculation method and the net primary productivity model to quantitatively analyze the carbon footprint of power consumption and its ecological pressure in China from 2006 to 2015, and then a decoupling analysis of the ecological pressure of power carbon footprint and per capita GDP is conducted. The results show that from 2006 to 2015, the carbon emissions of power consumption was divided into two stages:from 2006 to 2013, carbon emissions increased steadily and began to decline gradually after 2013. A weak decoupling relation is demonstrated between the ecological pressure of electricity carbon footprint and per capita GDP. However, a strong decoupling state began to appear from 2013 to 2015. It can be seen that remarkable achievements have been obtained in promoting economic restructuring and energy conservation & emission reduction in the power industry. However, efforts are still needed to ease the pressure on the ecological environment caused by electricity consumption process.