中国旅游经济增长源泉分解及其时空演化特征

依据数据包络分析法、最佳产出函数以及SDA两极分解法,构建了测算旅游经济增长源泉的非参数分解框架,并以2005~2012年中国30省份的旅游业为研究单元,结合投入与产出指标数据,对旅游经济增长源泉进行分解与测算。研究表明:2005~2012年,全要素生产率对旅游经济增长的贡献正逐步超过资源要素投入,成为推动中国旅游经济增长的主要源泉,相应贡献率从2006年的49.01%上升到2012年的82.18%,其中技术进步是全要素生产率贡献攀升的关键,而技术效率特别是其中的规模效率对旅游经济增长的贡献相对较小,且处于下滑态势,纯技术效率的影响微乎其微,资源要素投入的贡献率则从2006年的50.99%下降到2012年的26.52%;分区域来看,各区域旅游经济增长源泉的变化存在一定差异,使得中部、西部旅游经济增速超越东部,其中中部地区旅游经济增速加快主要受规模效率驱动,而西部地区则主要受纯技术效率驱动,并呈现出2005~2008年资源要素投入驱动与2009~2012年全要素生产率驱动两个阶段;从2006年到2012年中国旅游经济增长方式愈发趋于集约型,越来越多省区旅游业的全要素生产率贡献超过资源要素投入贡献,旅游经济增长更多地依靠全要素生产率驱动。

A DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE SOURCES DRIVERS OF CHINESE TOURISM GROWTH AND ITS TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS

In this paper,we have constructed the nonparametric decomposition framework to measure the growth drivers of tourism economy,and the drivers were analyzed and calculated based on the input and output data of the tourism industry in 30 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012.The results show that the contribution of TFP (total factor productivity) has been gradually overtaking that of the factor inputs in this period and became the main driver of economic growth of Chinese tourism,with its corresponding contribution rate jumping from 49.01％ in 2006 to 82.18％ in 2012.Technological progress was the key to the escalation of such a contribution,while technical efficiency,especially the scale efficiency within it,had a relatively smaller and slipping contribution to the tourism economic growth.Moreover,the contribution of pure technical efficiency was almost negligible,sliding from 50.99％ in 2006 to 26.52％ in 2012.The drivers of tourism economic growth differed from region to region,with the middle and western regions growing faster than the eastern region.The rise of tourism economy in central China was mainly driven by scale efficiency,while that in the western region was mostly driven by pure technical efficiency,which could be further divided into two distinct phases according to the different driving factors.The first phase was driven by factor input in the 2005-2008 period and the second phase by TFP in the 2009-2012 period.The tourism economic growth of China became increasingly intensive from 2006 to 2012,when the contribution of TFP surpassed that of factor inputs and the growth relied even more on TFP.