认知资源对公众城市气象灾害防御支付意愿的影响研究#br# ——基于南京市暴雨灾害防御的实证

城市气象灾害防御措施的改进是防灾减灾的有效手段，但如何在辨识公众支付意愿的基础上，构建多方成本分担的灾害防御制度是解决问题的关键。从成本分担的视角出发，以南京暴雨灾害防御为例，分析公众对增强型城市气象灾害防御的支付意愿及认知资源在其中的重要作用。通过构建由Probit模型和有序Probit模型组成的递归混合模型，探讨认知资源和经济资源在公众支付决策中的重要性。研究表明:认知资源的作用十分明显，且随着公众对暴雨灾害风险感知、防御措施了解程度、防御制度认可程度的提高，公众支付意愿越强。而暴雨灾害风险感知又受到灾害趋势认知和经历的共同影响，这两个变量分别影响风险感知的广度和深度，但受教育程度对风险感知深度的影响并不显著。核心建议是从满足公众对城市暴雨灾害风险、防御措施、灾害趋势等知识的需求，政府应该加强暴雨灾害科普宣传的主动性、提升主管和协同部门的公信力；规范科普知识内容、拓宽科普渠道。

ANALYSIS ON RISK FACTORS OF AIR POLLUTION OVER THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHICAL DETECTOR

The atmospheric particulate matter is the main pollutant in the atmosphere at present.Aerosol optical depth data and satellite remote sensing retrieval products can make up the surface observation stations' inadequate space coverage.In this study,we analyze the 2013 aerosol optical depth product of Terra and Aqua MODIS sensor of the16 cities in Yangtze River Delta,correct the vertical and humidity deviations,and convert those data to ground layer's aerosol extinction coefficient which can reflect region's air pollution.Through the geographical detector's method,we quantify the main risk factors of air pollution and the impact strength of each factor in the Yangtze River Delta.These risk factors include GDP,population,gradient,land cover types,annual average temperature,annual average precipitation and annual average wind speed.The result shows that:the air pollutions of the studied area were lower in the north and higher in the south.The meteorological factors significantly affected the spatial distribution of air pollutions,and the effect of precipitation is the highest one,each risk factor exhibited a clearly interactive influence on the spatial distribution of air pollutions.