景区动态承载力估算方法及其应用

景区承载力是旅游学研究的重要领域,由于现有景区承载力估算模型以景区由“均质的可游览空间”构成为假设前提,通过面积和游客单位游览面积进行景区承载力的估算,未涉及游客进入景区游览行为的动态性。由于游客不能瞬时填满整个景区,景区承载力具有时空特性,故建立景区动态承载力计算的概念模型,并构建以停留区、通道以及出入口等要素为空间实体的网络结构逻辑模型,从而提出基于网络结构的景区动态承载力估算方法,选取南京总统府景区作为实验区域,验证所提出的模型和算法。将地理信息科学应用于旅游管理,有利于确定景区承载力的具体量化水平,使景区管理分时管控措施得到有效发挥,进而促进旅游景区实现更高质量的经济社会效益。

Dynamic estimation method of scenic area carrying capacity and its application

With the development of the economy and the improvement of living standards, the tourism market is rising fast. However, entertaining in a limited tourist area, the huge number of tourists causes many problems, such as traffic jams, conflict in using of facilities, and resource destruction. Poor tourism management leads to frequent accidents and causes a great loss of people's lives and property. Since the tourist areas where tourists are active have boundaries, the carrying capacity is often limited in a certain period. The carrying capacity of the scenic area is an important field of tourism research. A lot of achievements have been made in domestic and international research. However, the existing scenic area carrying capacity estimation model is based on a traditional method that does not involve the dynamics of tourists entering the scenic site. Since tourists cannot fill the whole scenic area instantaneously, this research proposes a concept of dynamic carrying capacity. Firstly, the paper studies the conceptual model of the dynamic carrying capacity of the tourist area. It presents the elements such as the stay area, the passage, the entrance and exit, and obtains the relevant carrying capacity through the local carrying capacity calculation model. Then, based on the network structure model, logical structures of the residence area, passage and entrance and exit elements in the dynamic carrying capacity model are designed, and the detailed object relation diagram of nodes and passage edges is presented. Finally, the estimation method of the dynamic bearing capacity of the tourist area is given. Nanjing Precedential Palace is selected as the experimental area to verify the proposed method. The application of GIS technology in scenic environments can not only realize the spatial pattern analysis of scenic tourism activities and dynamic monitoring of the impact intensity of tourism activities but also help determine the quantitative level of tourist area bearing capacity and improve the quantitative level of the effectiveness of time-sharing management measures. Consequently, it promotes tourist attractions to achieve higher quality economic and social benefits under a safer production.