基于APCS-MLR模型的沱河流域污染来源解析

水污染来源的精准识别一直是水环境管理的热点和难点问题，为了解沱河流域水质特征与污染来源，该研究基于16个监测点位月尺度水质数据，采用绝对主成分-多元线性回归（APCS-MLR）模型，解析污染来源及其主要贡献.结果表明:①COD是年度超标因子，总磷和氟化物在部分月份超标，水质从汛期至11月较差.②城镇生活与城市径流是影响沱河水质的主要驱动因子，其方差贡献率达24.7%，其次为环境背景值、农村生活源、畜禽养殖业+河道内源和种植业源，其方差贡献率分别为19.6%、9.9%、8.8%和7.6%.③从最主要的超标因子COD来看，城镇生活与城市径流是主要污染源，贡献率达60%；从总氮、总磷和氨氮指标来看，种植业、农村生活和畜禽养殖业为主要污染源，总计贡献率分别为56%、54%和57%.研究显示，加快污水管网的建设完善，控制城镇污染物的排放、收集和处理是沱河水质达标的当务之急，应重点加强对农田径流和畜禽养殖污染的有效管控. 

Pollution Source Apportionment of Tuohe River Based on Absolute Principal Component Score-Multiple Linear Regression

In order to investigate the water quality characteristics and pollution sources of the Tuohe River, this study used the absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression receptor modeling (APCS-MLR) technique to quantify the source contribution rate of each pollution factor based on the 81 monthly monitoring water quality data matrixes at 16 sites. The results show that: (1) Since the flood season, COD was considerable high in the Tuohe River, followed by total phosphorus (TP) and fluoride. (2) Urban runoff and urban domestic sewage were the most significant influencing factors of water quality, with a variance contribution rate of 24.7%, followed by background value (19.6%), domestic sewage (9.9%), composite sources of livestock waste and river sediment (8.8%) and agricultural runoff (7.6%). (3) In terms of COD pollution, the contribution rate of urban runoff and urban domestic sewage reached 60%. In terms of total nitrogen, TP and ammonia nitrogen pollution, the domestic sewage, the composite sources of livestock waste and river sediment and the agricultural runoff were the main pollution sources. Their contribution rate was 56%, 54% and 57%, respectively. This research shows that in order to achieve the goals of water quality of the Tuohe River, it is urgent to speed up the construction of sewage pipe networks and control the discharge, collection and treatment of urban pollutants; In terms of improving the water quality, the local authorities should take multiple measures to comprehensively control the domestic sewage, urban and agricultural runoff, livestock waste and river sediment.