全球粮食贸易网络格局及其影响因素

基于复杂网络分析方法,构建了小麦、水稻、玉米三大主粮的全球粮食贸易网络,解析了网络格局的总体特征及其变化态势,定量评估了全球粮食贸易网络格局影响因素。研究发现：全球粮食贸易已经成为一个复杂有序、相互依赖的网络系统,网络规模不断增加,连同性和紧密度不断加强;全球粮食贸易网络节点呈现非均衡结构特征,高强度和高节点度国家在网络中具有主导作用,呈现出口国主导的网络结构特征;经济社会发展差异性、贸易政策的一致性和语言文化邻近性对粮食贸易网络影响显著,经济社会发展差异推动贸易网络联系更加紧密且多元化,贸易政策的一致性促进贸易网络更加持续和稳健。建议中国继续实施更加多元化、多边化的粮食贸易政策,提升中国在世界粮食网络节点的中心性特征,充分利用国内国际两个市场,融入全球粮食贸易网络体系,积极推动构建全球粮食安全命运共同体。

Research on global grain trade network pattern and its influencing factors

Based on the complex network analysis, this paper constructs the global grain trade network of wheat, rice and corn. The study analyzes the overall characteristics and changing trends of the network pattern, and quantitatively evaluates the influencing factors of the network pattern of global grain trade. The result shows that: Firstly, the global food trade network has become a complex, orderly and interdependent network system. The network scale is increasing, and the degree of connectivity and tightness are strengthening continuously. Secondly, the nodes of the global food trade network show the characteristics of disequilibrium structure. And countries with high strength and high node degree play a leading role in the network, showing the characteristics of network structure dominated by exporting countries. Thirdly, economic and social differences, consistency of trade policies, linguistic and cultural proximity have significant effects on food trade networks. Economic and social differences have driven trade networks to become more interconnected and diversified. Consistency in trade policy contributes to a more sustainable and robust trade network. Therefore, it is suggested that China implement a more diversified and multilateralized grain trade policy. China should strengthen and enhance its centrality among nodes of the global food network, fully integrate into the global food trade network, and promote the building of a global community of shared future for food security.