国际粮食贸易背景下的市场整合与虚拟资源流动——以中国巴基斯坦大米市场为例

贸易自由化和区域经济一体化不仅会通过比较优势整合市场、提升效率,还会带来农产品贸易中虚拟资源的流动。以中国—巴基斯坦大米贸易为研究对象,使用两国大米贸易数据,首先检验中巴粮食市场整合程度,其次分析中巴大米贸易带来的虚拟水和虚拟土地的流动。结果表明：（1）中巴之间大米市场已经高度整合,且价格存在长期均衡,但巴基斯坦大米价格比中国波动大,其对中国大米的价格弹性为1.097;“一带一路”倡议带来了巴方大米价格7.8%的下降,增加了穷人的福利。（2）贸易带来了虚拟水土资源的流动。中国累计从巴基斯坦净进口大米354万t,相当于净进口国内52万hm²、巴基斯坦96.4万hm²耕地,以及国内34.4亿t、巴基斯坦101.7亿t水资源。中国应加大技术支持和扩散的力度,具有促进粮食安全,节约全球资源的意义。

Market integration and virtual flow of resources under the background of international food trade: Evidence from China-Pakistan rice market

Trade liberalization and regional economic integration will not only lead to market integration and efficiency improvement through comparative advantages, but also produce transaction of "virtual resources", such as "virtual water" and "virtual land". Based on the time series model, and the food trade and prices data covering China and Pakistan, this paper first examines the degree of food market integration of the two countries. Secondly, we calculate the net flow of virtual water and virtual land resources accompanied by the rice trade, and analyze changes in resource efficiency. The results showed that: (1) The rice market between China and Pakistan has been highly integrated, but the price of rice in Pakistan is more fluctuant than that in China, and the price elasticity of rice in Pakistan is 1.097 with respect to that of China. This means that if rice price in China increases by 10%, the one in Pakistan will increase by 10.97%. Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, rice price in Pakistan has fallen by 7.8%, which increases the welfare of the poor. (2) After 1988, China had net imports of 3.54 million tons of rice from Pakistan in total, equivalent to 520000 hectares of domestic cultivated land, or 964000 hectares of agricultural land in Pakistan, 3.44 billion tons of domestic water or 10.17 billion tons of water in Pakistan. The empirical results indicate a great difference in the utilization efficiency of land and water resources between China and Pakistan. Although the utilization efficiency of nature resources has been converging after the implementation of the B&R Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project, the converging speed is not high enough. China should continue to promote the technology spillover to Pakistan and other B&R Initiative countries, help them overcome difficulties in raising low resources utilization efficiency, and increase the yield of rice to finally achieve the convergence of resource utilization efficiency. In global viewpoint, this not only ensures food security, but also saves natural resources, which is in line with the core goal of B&R Initiative: to make full use of comparative advantages in cooperating countries, to achieve free flow of factors and win-win cooperation, and finally build a community with a shared future, interests and responsibilities for mankind.