中国居民膳食结构升级、国际贸易与粮食安全

目前,中国居民膳食消费水平与结构正在由温饱型向全面小康型转变,形式上表现为由“粮菜型”向“粮肉菜果”多元型和由传统家庭烹饪型向现代便捷型转变。膳食消费结构和水平的改变将影响未来中国的粮食消费量。以中国台湾居民的膳食消费发展规律判断,目前中国大陆居民的膳食消费水平距离富裕水平下的稳定状态整体差距超过50%,肉禽类差距超过一倍。而2018年中国粮食表观自给率已经下降到了85%,大豆自给率仅为15%,虚拟耕地自给率仅为72.6%。在食物消费达到富裕稳定态时,中国不仅需要进口大量的蛋白饲料,还可能需要进口相当数量的能量饲料。基本结论为：仅仅依靠中国本土的农业生产资源已难以维持全面小康水平下的本土农产品需求,发展到富裕水平短缺将会更甚,依赖国际市场是必然需求。从维护生态环境的角度讲,在农产品进口贸易上可多考虑进口动物性产品,适当放开粮食类产品进口数量,自己生产水果、蔬菜等类的农产品。

Dietary structure upgrade of China's residents,international trade and food security

At present, Chinese residents' dietary consumption structure is upgrading, changing from a subsistence type to a comprehensive well-off type and from traditional home cooking to modern convenience. Changes in the structure and level of dietary consumption will affect China's future food consumption. Judged from the development law of food consumption of residents in Taiwan, China, the overall gap between the current level and the stable state under the affluent level of Chinese residents' dietary consumption is about 53%, and the gap of animal food consumption is more than doubles. In the past, Chinese residents mainly used grains and vegetables as their main food. Now, they increase consumption of high value-added foods such as animal foods and fruits. China's nominal self-sufficiency rate of grain dropped to 85% in 2018, and that of soybean dropped to 15% at the same time. The self-sufficiency rate of virtual farmland was only 72.6%. Then, China needs to import not only a large amount of protein feed, but also a considerable amount of energy feed. It is concluded that it is difficult to maintain the demand for agricultural products only relying on China's local agricultural production resources. China should rely on domestic production and the international market to ensure food security. To protect the ecological environment, China should import more animal products, especially beef and lamb, appropriately liberalize the import volume of food products, self-produced fruits, and vegetables.