面向SDGs的城市扩张多情景模拟——以“一带一路”中亚区为例

在全球倡导可持续发展目标（SDGs）的背景下,城市作为人类活动的主要场所,既是SDGs的聚焦区域,更是世界各国落实SDGs的着力点。以“一带一路”沿线中亚五国首都城市区为例,面向SDGs设定发展情景和相应参数,采用Markov-FLUS模型模拟2030年自然发展、生态优先与经济优先情景下的城市发展格局,权衡SDGs与多情景城市格局演化规律,从空间视角协调城市的社会、生态与经济,提供城市发展的决策依据。结果表明：（1）2010—2015年来,研究区均出现建设用地总量增加、生态用地总量减少的现象。（2）未来情景模拟中均表现出由建设用地扩张引致的生态用地破碎化;生态优先情景有效抑制了建设用地扩张;经济优先情景下转化为裸地的土地有所减少,建设用地出现连片扩张。（3）未来城市发展应协调生态保护与经济发展,将生态保护理念融入城市建设,实现国家政策推动土地资源可持续利用,促进实现2030年全球可持续发展目标。

Multi-scenario urban expansion simulation for SDGs: Taking the Central Asian region along the Belt and Road as an example

In the context of the global initiative for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), cities, as the main place for human activities, are not only the focal point of the SDGs, but also the focus of implementation of the SDGs in countries around the world. Taking the urban areas of the capitals of five Central Asian countries along the Belt and Road as an example, this study sets development scenarios and corresponding parameters towards SDGs, and uses the Markov-FLUS model to simulate the urban development pattern under natural development scenarios, ecological priority scenarios and economic priority scenarios in 2030. The change patterns of urban land use under the SDGs are estimated. The study provide a basis for decision-making in urban development through coordinating the city's society, ecology, and economy from a spatial perspective. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2015, the total amount of construction land in the study area increased and the total amount of ecological land decreased. (2) Ecological land fragmentation caused by the expansion of construction land occurred in future scenario simulations, ecological priority scenarios effectively inhibited the expansion of construction land, land converted to bare land has been reduced in the economic priority scenario, and construction land has been continuously expanding. (3) Future urban development should coordinate ecological protection and economic development, integrate ecological protection concepts into urban construction, and implement national policies to promote land resources sustainable use and promotion of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.